Advanced Ch. 9: Why the Data You See is Not Always the Truth

1. The Battle for Credit

The sum of revenue reported by Meta, Google, and TikTok is often higher than the money in your bank account. This is Over-attribution.

2. Two Data Lies

• A. View-through Conversion: A user saw an ad, didn’t click, but bought later. Platform: “My credit!” Truth: They might have bought anyway.
• B. 7-Day Click vs 1-Day: The longer the window, the “prettier” the data, but the “emptier” the growth.

3. Brand in Action: Adidas’s 2019 Great Reflection

Adidas admitted they over-invested in Google Search. They ran an experiment: shutting off brand search ads in certain regions. Result: Sales didn’t drop. Existing fans just used the organic links below the ads. They were paying for “existing” customers rather than “new” ones.

Lesson: Understand Incrementality. If you turn off the ad, does the sale still happen? If yes, the ad has zero value.

Next Chapter: Advanced Ch. 10: Attribution Models. Assigning credit like a judge.