Advanced Ch. 10: Attribution Models — How to Assign Credit

1. The Soccer Analogy

If you use Last Click attribution, only the forward who scored gets credit. You spend all your budget on the striker, forget to pay the goalkeeper, and then wonder why you keep losing games.

2. Real-World Models

• Last Click: Direct but biased. Systematic “Survivor Bias” against awareness channels.
• First Click: Rewards the “Introduction.” Great for cold starts.
• Multi-Touch: Distributes credit (e.g., 30% FB, 70% Google). Necessary for high-ticket items.

3. Brand in Action: Airbnb’s De-attribution Experiment

Airbnb stopped buying Google brand keywords in several US states. They found search volume remained steady. This proved brand ads for an established giant had low Incrementality. They moved that budget to YouTube (Middle Funnel).

Lesson: Advanced attribution isn’t about reading reports; it’s about making subtractions.

Next Chapter: Advanced Ch. 11: The True Meaning of Scaling. Avoiding “Scale Crashing.”